Thursday, August 31, 2006

WPTE deserving of another look?

The World Poker Tour, known by most for its licensing agreement with the Travel Channel to show its poker tournaments, has a small but promising online poker franchise that could create huge gains for WPT Enterprises, writes a columnist for TheStreet.com.

The stock, ticker WPTE, has been hammered recently, and many investors may recall that the Company was subject to some wild movements over a year ago when it was reported that Doyle Brunson had submitted an unsolicited bid to buy the business at an outrageous amount. The deal ended up being fruitless and WPTE has been getting punished ever since.

The big question for the Company is how to tap the huge online gambling market while still abiding by U.S. regulations. U.S. law forbids companies based in the States to allow gambling from those logging in on U.S. soil. According the article linked in this post, the U.S. accounts for 50% of the online gaming demand.

Will WPTE be able to tap into what's left and save its struggling franchise? Time will only tell, but the poker fad does not seem to be going away anytime soon.

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Jamie Gold's buddy: I want half

It seems that Jamie Gold may have made a verbal agreement with a buddy that could tie up half of his $12 million pot.

Manhattanites and their kids

Costly tutoring is all the rage in the upper class of Manhattan.

Back from Brazil

Officially back from my week long Brazil trip. Expect more updates. Orientation at the GSB starts next week.

Tuesday, August 15, 2006

Bloomberg article reviews league table; Goldman at the top, but club deals mean lower fees

Goldman sits atop the investment banking perch, but deals with 7 advisers have meant that it's no longer lonely at the top.

Saturday, August 12, 2006

The ills of Scottish Re

The troubles at Scottish Re covered well by Reuters.

Fire sale coming up?

Friday, August 11, 2006

Evercore prices IPO; KBW files IPO

Evercore, a boutique New York investment bank run by former U.S Deputy Treasury Robert Altman, went public with a bang this morning. The shares opened up 19% at $25 and reached $26.10 at one point. Evercore's IPO follows the success of other boutique investment bank IPOs (Lazard and Greenhill).

Also today, as had been anticipated, boutique investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods filed to go public. Here is their SEC filing.

National City buys boutique investment bank SSG Capital Advisors

National City buys a boutique investment bank located in Philly.

Chicago's iconic convenience store sold to 7-Eleven

White Hen Pantry, an Illinois based convenience store with shops all around the city has been sold to 7-Eleven.

Jamie Gold: The Overnight Celebrity

Jamie Gold your table is ready. Congrats to the 2006 WSOP Main Event champion. $12 million to the winner. Unreal.

Thursday, August 10, 2006

BusinessWeek says MBA programs looking more at younger applicants

The unwritten rule for applicants to top MBA programs is that you have to have experience to get into the top programs. The average age at many top schools is 26-28, implying that most students have 4-6 years of experience before they start. According to BusinessWeek that may be changing, and some schools will even take students right out of undergrad.

Cuban's stock gumshoe website launches

Mark Cuban backed website http://www.sharesleuth.com launched a few days ago with a piece on Xethanol, an ethanol related concern that site editor Chris Carey recommends shorting.

Carey/Cuban's site has been anticipated by the market for months and was mentioned in this blog several months ago.

The comprehensive piece has one disclaimer that has made more than one reader do a double-take, and that is that Mark Cuban has a short position on Xethanol. The NYTimes' DealBook blog had a nice piece providing background on the controversy associated the first piece.

Wednesday, August 09, 2006

Magazine publishes top traders aged 30 and under

Trader Monthly published an article on some of the top young traders in the business. The new Barbarians at the Gate?

BusinessWeek getting a lot of flak for its Digg.com cover story

Financial magazine BusinessWeek's most recent issue is on Web 2.0's successful website, digg.com. The magazine's cover claims that the founder of digg.com made $60 million in 18 months. The founder, Kevin Rose, is a 29 year old internet entrpreneur who epitomizes the impact and growth of Web 2.0 companies.

The BusinessWeek article's lofty claims have been ridiculed by mass media, however, causing a stir and calling into question if the story's claims were meant to bring attention to the magazine. If attention is what BusinessWeek wanted, that's what it got.

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

The Deal's featured article is on Chicago's economy

Check out a comprehensive review of Chicago's industries and economy from the Deal.





Welcome to Chicagoland
by Matt Miller Posted 08:04 EST, 3, Aug 2006

In 1997, born-and-bred Southerner Don DeLoach, his large family in tow, moved to Chicago to take a job with database giant Sybase Inc. Two years later, when DeLoach quit to head a Charlotte, N.C.-based software startup called YOUcentric Inc., his wife and seven children refused to leave. So he commuted. After YOUcentric was acquired by J.D. Edwards & Co. in late 2001, DeLoach listed three criteria for his next job: The company had to possess fantastic technology. It had to have strong growth potential. And it had to be based in Chicago.

Chicago? The Windy City? The Second City? The city of stockyards, Al Capone, the 1968 Democratic convention, the frozen Monsters of Midway? "I had a terrible view of Chicago before we moved," DeLoach, now 45, recalls. "What happened was unbelievable. We fell in love with the place."

DeLoach is now president and CEO of Aleri Inc., which provides state-of-the-art stream-processing technology for financial services. Aleri resulted from a 2002 merger between a London and a New York concern. The headquarters of the combined company was originally planned for New York City, but DeLoach got his wish. He now looks out over Lake Michigan from his corporate offices in a downtown Chicago high-rise.

Aleri's 45 Chicago-based employees won't make or break the local economy. But the kind of high-tech company Aleri represents is critical for the city's future. Then there's DeLoach's unabashed exuberance for his surroundings, sentiments that are echoed in conversations all across Chicago. Indeed, this ubiquitous form of Chicago boosterism explains the source of the city's congenital optimism, despite some economic hits this decade.

"I don't want to leave. I don't know many people living in Chicago who do," says Richard Kaye, a native Chicagoan and executive vice president of Hilco Organization, a diversified group of companies based in Northbrook, Ill. That sentiment is true of both individuals and businesses, he adds. "Companies don't need to be based in Chicago. They want to be."

While Chicago may lack New York's flash or Los Angeles' pizzazz, it exhibits an understated, stolid confidence. Says Thomas Allison, executive vice president and senior managing director of Mesirow Financial Consulting LLC, a veteran banker and a former Chicago cop: "There's a tremendous amount of pride in the city."

For good reason. In the 1990s, Chicago successfully reinvented itself, reducing its dependence on manufacturing and solidifying its reputation as a center for transportation and professional and business services. The city is home to many of the country's major consultancies and six of the 15 largest U.S. law firms. Other economic activities boomed in the '90s as well: tourism, some technology, pharmaceuticals, certain kinds of financial services.

Chicago is often described as a post-industrial metropolis, Carl Sandburg's "player with railroads" and "city of the big shoulders" transformed into a jet-setting options giant and a city of broadband. Chicago's blue-collar foundation may now be more romantic myth than reality. But part of what gives Chicago its immense strength is its ability to maintain some of the old while encouraging the new. The city retains its traditional role as capital of the Midwest while attempting to foster a global outlook, reach and business environment.

"We're a generation away from being a manufacturing and blue-collar city, and you can feel that we're becoming international," says David Kalt, CEO and co-founder of the online options brokerage optionsXpress Holdings Inc. Yet "there's something grounding about being in Chicago. … There's a nice balance."

The goal, as Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago senior economist Bill Testa puts it, is to become "the Midwest's portal to the globe." Chicago's success, ultimately, is tied to a kind of economic inclusiveness.

Chicago isn't there yet. According to Testa, who often appears to serve as the city's economic doubting Thomas, the metropolitan region retains unhealthy links to Midwestern markets, many of which are suffering. Chicago job growth this decade, he notes, has been tepid and half the national average.

Gone are many of the manufacturing stalwarts that defined the city and its skyline during the 20th century: International Harvester Co., Pullman Co., Republic Steel Corp., Crane Co. In their places have arisen insurance giant Aon Corp., lodging company Global Hyatt Corp., consultancy Accenture (which split from another long-term Chicago institution, now defunct: accountant Arthur Andersen).

"The old skyscrapers reflected an industrial-oriented city," says Timothy Gilfoyle, an urban historian at Chicago's Loyola University, as he gestures toward the city's best-known thoroughfare, Michigan Avenue. "The new ones are service-oriented, leisure-based."

Yet, there's a certain constancy. "Much of the industry we have, whether in the service sector or traditional manufacturing, goes back to simple geography," says Robert Ray, senior vice president of business development for the Chicago Board of Trade. "We're the crossroads in the nation. We can't ever escape that."

Indeed, Chicago remains America's premier distribution center, even if aircraft and semis have long since supplanted railroads. More containers move through Chicago than any other port in North America.

Manufacturing, especially in the city proper, has declined precipitously. But that doesn't mean the metropolitan area is devoid of industry. Allison describes a Chicago-area friend who started a business buying and selling scrap steel. In two years, revenue hit $20 million.

Underpinning the Chicago story is an amazing variety of businesses. Chicago's economy is broader based than any other metropolitan area in the U.S., a Moody's Investors Service Inc. study shows. That means that while Chicago hasn't undergone Silicon Valley-type booms, it's better situated to withstand the inevitable busts, because it's not dependent on one, two or three sectors. "Chicago doesn't experience big mood swings, except maybe over the White Sox and the Cubs," says Kaye.

Not that Chicago has completely escaped tough economic times. A quarter century ago, rust-belt decline, exacerbated by high oil prices, hit the city hard. High unemployment, decay and urban flight followed.

And today the economic forecast isn't all blue skies and cool breezes. Chicago experienced some difficult years earlier this decade and has yet to fully recover. The telecom collapse and the downturn in air travel hit hard, as did the Web bust.

The Chicago Business Activity index indicates that the metropolitan economy has registered modest growth over the past two years and will continue to grow. However, data gathered by University of Illinois' Regional Economics Applications Laboratory predicts jobs in the state of Illinois, which is dominated by Chicago, won't eclipse their previous November 2000 peak until October 2008.

Even in terms of its service sector, the metropolitan area remains tied in some measure to Midwest manufacturing, much of which is flagging and some of which — auto manufacturing, for one — is on life support. "Chicago, after some heady times in the '90s, went down apace with the Midwest," says Testa.

According to figures compiled by Testa, the city itself lost some 270,000 manufacturing jobs from 1977 to 2004.

The metropolitan area made a remarkable effort to replace those jobs. Chicago ranks second in terms of housing the headquarters of Fortune 500 companies. But much of the economic growth stems from the myriad of small and midmarket companies. "There's a churning of Fortune 500 companies — there always has been a churning," says Frank Beal, the managing director of Chicago Metropolis 2020, a civic organization. "The real growth in the economy comes from smaller firms. The key is how we nurture them, encourage them."

"There's a ton of entrepreneurs who started here, grew here and now have a client base all over the world," says Robert Labate, a Chicago-based partner with Holland & Knight LLP. "It makes us resilient. There's continuous regeneration."

Chicagoland is a geographic and an economic behemoth. The metropolitan region encompasses 74 towns and cities, stretching from Wisconsin to Indiana. Metropolitan Chicago's gross domestic product should top $400 billion this year, based on estimates compiled by the U.S. Conference of Mayors. Only the New York City and Los Angeles markets are larger.

Like other American metropolises, Chicago has witnessed the suburbanization of its economy. Greater Chicago is dotted with cookie-cutter office complexes and industrial parks that arc around the city. Motorola Inc. is in Schaumburg, Ill., Allstate Corp. is in Northbrook, and Kraft Foods Inc. is in Northfield. Fortune Brands Inc. is in Deerfield. Abbott Laboratories is in Abbott Park. McDonald's Corp. occupies a campus in Oak Brook. Chicago residents routinely bemoan the perils of a punishing reverse commute, out to the suburbs to work, back to the city to live.

Chicago's heart, however, remains decidedly urban. And it's not just a question of the Bulls, the Bears, the Cubs, the White Sox or, for that matter, the Chicago Symphony or Lyric Opera. The city engenders inclusion. "Everyone is invested in and has an interest in downtown, poor or rich," says Lisa Johnson, an associate with Holland & Knight. "There's very little, if any, city-suburb animosity," adds John Schmidt, a partner with Mayer Brown Rowe & Maw LLP. Suburbanites "feel part of the city."

The city itself feels flush and self-confident. Few deny that longtime Mayor Richard M. Daley, who has been in office 17 years, is a guiding force, like his autocratic father, who presided over the city for 21 years. Publicly, just about everyone sings his hosannas, both in terms of the city's physical vitality and its friendliness toward business. "He's the single most important element of the city," declares Schmidt.

Privately, however, some, at least, call Daley petty, autocratic and vindictive. Last month, the mayor's former patronage chief and three other officials were convicted of corruption. Daley said he was unaware of what was going on, although the convictions prompted whispers that the mayor may not run for re-election next year.

While historians warn that it's a stretch to compare the Chicago of today with the city's gilded age a little more than a century ago, there clearly remains some of that same bedrock belief in the manifest ability of the city to prosper. Construction cranes now loom over a Trump International Hotel and Tower project, an addition to the Art Institute, a CBS broadcast center. Theaters have been spruced up. Restaurants, clubs and galleries are popping up.

A mix of large and small companies occupy towering skyscrapers and spiffy lofts. Last month, UAL Corp., parent of United Air Lines Inc., announced that its headquarters would remain in Chicago and it would move from the suburbs to a Wacker Street high-rise, just around the corner from Boeing Co.'s head office; Boeing famously relocated from long-term home Seattle a few years back. "Downtown is a conglomerate of uses, a conglomerate of activities, a conglomerate of enthusiasts," says Steven Elrod, the managing partner of Holland & Knight's Chicago office.

Trendy residential and commercial enclaves have also transformed once-blighted neighborhoods as gentrification spreads. Ride the Chicago Transit Authority's Green Line from the downtown Loop three miles south to the Illinois Institute of Technology and this transformation becomes evident. One of the last of the city's notorious public housing projects stands nearby. Others have been recently cleared. Just south of the campus, construction is beginning on a huge multi-income residential development called Park Boulevard, site of what was once one of the worst projects. Newly planted trees line formerly barren streets.

A decade ago, the institute's board considered moving the campus to the suburbs. Now the institute itself is undergoing both a growth spurt and a beautification campaign. The train literally travels on top of the school's campus center, a Rem Koolhaas-designed building opened three years ago that turns elevated tracks into a stunning design element. Last year, the school renovated S.R. Crown Hall, one of the masterpieces of modernist architect Ludwig Mies van der Rohe, who once headed the institute's architecture school. Work began earlier this year on a $50 million technology business center. A $6 million technology incubator opened late last year. Its first tenant, All Cell Technologies LLC, which hopes to commercialize lithium-ion battery technology, picked up $1.25 million in angel funding in June.

"We've created a little college town," says Marlis Broadhead, who until last month was the school's spokesperson. "We couldn't have done this five or six years ago."

Closer to downtown, dozens of residential projects line streets stretching south, north and west from the Loop. For-sale signs are plastered on $500,000 condominiums, where decrepit warehouses and seedy offices once stood.

Chicago in recent years avoided the kind of housing booms and busts that shook the coasts. The city's cost of living pales in comparison to New York or San Francisco. But the kind of effervescence now bubbling up could lead to oversupply, some bankers warn, especially in the more expensive condo market. An array of residential skyscrapers is rising on land just north of the city's main Grant Park. Lakeshore East, alone, will add nearly 5,000 units when completed by 2015. Developers have estimated the cost at $4 billion. Three buildings have been completed. Two more are due next year.

"It used to be no one wanted to live downtown, says Schmidt. Now "living along Grant Park is equivalent to living along Central Park."

As its name implies, Lakeshore East is perched on the edge of Lake Michigan. America's largest body of fresh water serves as a dramatic backdrop to Chicago's urban landscape. What once gave the city its water-borne access to the East is now the site of a multibillion-dollar recreational industry.

Chicago's transformation isn't limited to either downtown high-rises or megacorporations. Take Jay Sharman and his sports media-production company, TeamWorks Media Inc. The company occupies part of what was once an early-20th-century coffin factory. Sharman, who co-founded the company and serves as CEO, is perched along with 35 other employees a block from the city's old meatpacking district. It's in the West Loop, an area of Chicago that 10 years ago wasn't safe to wander into after dark. Now it's a neighborhood of hot restaurants, fashionable art galleries and expensive condos, modeling and casting agencies, not to say Oprah Winfrey's operation. "It's thriving," says Sharman. "There's a cool factor to it."

The same could be said of TeamWorks. Sharman and three partners seized on the idea of a full-service sports marketing company, which includes television production, Web design and marketing. They attracted some local customers such as the Chicago Bulls, Wilson Sporting Goods Co. and the Big Ten collegiate athletic conference. They now boast of doing work for ESPN Inc., Comcast Corp. and the National Basketball Association. TeamWorks has witnessed double-digit growth each year, Sharman says. While he declined to make revenue figures public, they're in the single millions, he says, and "hopefully beyond that" by the end of the year. TeamWorks is now in the process of spinning out its IT division into a separate company. "TeamWorks embodies the new Chicago economy," says Labate, the company's outside counsel.

Chicago is full of such stories. Kalt, who had designed software for the travel industry, and two other partners inaugurated optionsXpress in 2000. They figured there was a need for that kind of brokerage and that a Chicago base meant "we were close to the people who make the decisions" in the options market. They shunned early-stage financing, depending instead on friends and family. Summit Partners provided later-stage financing. OptionsXpress developed its product, launched it and quickly gained profitability. The company went public in January 2005. For the three months ended June 30, 2006, net income totaled $18 million, on revenue of $47.3 million. The company now has more than 200,000 accounts.

"We weren't afraid to take that first step. You feel that in Chicago," says Kalt, 39. "There's a culture here. It's roll up your sleeve, and get things done. It's very solid."

Moody's 2003 economic diversity study ranked Chicago first among 318 cities. (By contrast, Los Angeles ranks 60th and New York 69th.) A list of Chicago's Top 100 companies is all over the map. Industrial fasteners and components company and perennial acquirer Illinois Tool Works Inc. ranks next to insurance giant CNA Financial Corp., which stands next to healthcare stalwart Baxter International Inc. "Chicago's economic diversity has served it well over the past decade," says Cary Kochman, Chicago-based co-head of mergers and acquisitions for UBS.

The melding of old and new is on display in an art deco landmark at the foot of LaSalle Street in the city's financial district. On Aug. 1, Chicago's Board of Trade lit up its electronic trading board. For the first time in its 158-year history, the board is offering an alternative to open outcry for its agricultural futures contracts. Huge plasma screens now ring the trading floor, with its distinctive octagon-shaped pits. Next door, in a building that can easily accommodate a 747, traders deal financial options. CBOT now claims 80% of the world's turnover of treasury options. The exchange launched precious metals futures trading in 2005 and now boasts more than 40% of the options market.

Periodically, New York has attempted to grab some of Chicago's options trade. It's failed. A few years back, the German Eurex exchange linked with a New York affiliate to capture some of the trade. "No success," says CBOT's Ray.

At one point or another, conversations tend to almost inevitably veer toward a comparison between Chicago and New York. There's some defensiveness here, mixed with pragmatism. "There's no denying we're the second city," says David Heller, a Chicago-based partner with Latham & Watkins LLP and co-chair of the firm's insolvency and restructuring group. "We're second to New York, but we're an exciting second."

Even the city's biggest boosters admit Chicago can't always hold its own. The track record in M&A has been mixed, as has its impact on the city. After BP plc and Amoco Corp. merged in 1998, for example, the headquarters moved to London. But it was "more an issue of civic pride and less an issue of a hole in the economy," says Elrod.

Green Bay, Wis.-based WPS Resources Corp., on the other hand, has agreed to pay $1.5 billion for Chicago-based Peoples Energy Corp. but has said it would move its headquarters to Chicago if the deal is approved by shareholders and regulators.

Some defeats sting more than others. With its ornate clock tower and distinctive Tiffany Glass ceiling, the Marshall Field's department store on State Street, in the heart of the downtown Loop, is a Chicago icon. It's second only in size to Macy's Herald Square New York store. Federated Department Stores Inc. acquired Marshall Field & Co. as part of its $17 billion acquisition of May Department Stores Co. in 2005. Next month, the Marshall Field's nameplate is scheduled to come down. Macy's is going up.

Perhaps the most dramatic change has come from financial services. What that's meant is a matter of debate. While many bemoan the lack of homegrown commercial banks, others maintain that the city's concentration of private equity, hedge funds and corporate financiers serves Chicago well. "It's on the cutting edge of global financial innovation, even though it doesn't serve as headquarters of 10 commercial banks," says Kochman.

The biggest money center banks have disappeared, had their identities shift or have undergone ownership changes. The Continental Illinois Building is now Bank of America Corp., the result of a 1994 acquisition. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. signs now hang from what were once First National Bank of Chicago offices. In 1998, First Chicago NBD Corp. merged with Banc One Corp. to form Bank One Corp., which in turn was acquired by J.P. Morgan Chase two years ago. It probably doesn't mean much to Chicagoans that Bank One chairman Jamie Dimon is now running Chase — in New York City.

Add to that the fickleness of out-of-town financial institutions. Citigroup Inc. several years back decided to shut down its Chicago-based leveraged finance operation completely. "It was a downer," admits Heller.

The mergers often brought dislocation, job loss and distraction, but not always. What is now Netherlands-based ABN Amro Bank NV acquired locally owned LaSalle Bank more than two decades back. LaSalle, in turn, acquired other regional banks; most notable was the $1.9 billion purchase in 1997 of Detroit-based Standard Federal Bancorp.

LaSalle now claims that it's the largest Chicago-based bank. It's a big force nationally in the middle market and is one of the country's largest real estate lenders. Because the Dutch allowed Chicago-based management to run the show, there's a sense of belonging. Bank chairman Norman Bobins is the closest Chicago has to a banking baron. "Even though we're owned by ABN Amro, we're viewed as a Chicago name, a Chicago institution," says Michael Sharkey, president of LaSalle Business Credit LLC, a unit of the bank.

LaSalle's image in Chicago transcends signs and ATM machines. It involves itself in a wide variety of civic activities from the newly renovated and renamed LaSalle Bank Theater (formerly the Schubert) to the LaSalle Bank Chicago Marathon. That level of activity doesn't surprise Beal, a former steel executive. "This is a business culture that absorbs the newcomer and says part of your responsibility requires participation in civic affairs," he says.

Nowhere is that more evident than in Millennium Park, a new civic centerpiece that resulted from a public-private partnership. LaSalle Bank's name, along with 19 other corporations, 12 foundations and 56 individuals, is inscribed on the park's peristyle. The list represents old Chicago money and new, hedge fund managers and mall owners. Together, they donated more than $235 million to help construct the park over a huge underground parking garage on the site of what was once an exposed rail yard, adjacent to Grant Park.

Since it opened two years back, the park has proven a popular draw for residents and tourists, with a futuristic, stainless steel band shell, a quirky, water-spouting, changeable mural and a $23 million sculpture, nicknamed the bean.

The idea "was to advertise Chicago as a global center, not only in terms of business, but in terms of art," says Gilfoyle, as he leads a visitor around the park. "In its decentralized, fragmented way, it has worked out."

Part of the success of the park is financial. The city underwrote the cost of the 9,000-car garage construction with a bond issue. Now Chicago is in the process of privatizing the garage. Prospective bidders are conducting due diligence. Bids are due in mid-September.

This follows the city's successful $1.83 billion privatization in 2004 of an elevated highway. Midway Airport is also likely to be privatized, the first major U.S. airport of size to do so. "Chicago is probably in the strongest financial position of any major American city," says Schmidt, who counseled the city on its privatization scheme.

When he travels to Manhattan for pitch meetings, TeamWorks' Sharman almost inevitably encounters a kind of New York snobbery about the Midwest. Sharman says he tries to turn that cynicism around and use his company's Chicago roots to advantage. "One of the reasons we've stayed here," Sharman says enthusiastically, "is Chicago's still one of the best-kept secrets around." Not that Chicagoans are keeping quiet about it.

Interesting news from Myspace and Google

Social networking behomth has signed an interesting deal with Google. Google will be the primary search engine attached to the massive online community.

New York Magazine posts a celebrity map on its website

Pretty interesting map that New York Magazine has put together.

Investment Banking IPOs have an about face

Reuters on investment banking IPOs.

Blackstone not making a higher bid on HCA

The HCA buyout will likely stand as it is. For weeks there has been speculation that Blackstone might trump the offer from HCA's management and the consortium of PE firms that included Bain and KKR. According to a Bloomberg article, however, it seems that Blackstone will not be making a higher bid. The $33 billion deal will be the largest private equity buyout ever.

Today's Markets

All eyes are on the Fed today. 17 straight interest rate hikes of 25bps has brought interest rates to their current level of 25bps. The consensus seems to be that the Fed will pause raising rates, given that GDP growth has slowed recently. This signals that the interest rate hikes may have completed their job and that future hikes could further impede growth. Inflation will always be a worry and could justify further rate increases today, but the consensus among analysts and the media seems to be that rates will stay where they are today. The announcement will come later today. You can expect the market to react not only to the decision to raise or not to raise, but rather to the outlook given in the Fed's minutes. Traders like to interpret Bernanke's groups sentiment to gauge what may happen in the future.

Sunday, August 06, 2006

Hedge Funds are back in vogue

The NYTimes writes that hedge funds are back in vogue.

Coach goes insane

Ridiculous video clip of a minor league baseball coach going nuts over an umpire's call. Crazy.

Companies under options backdating probes are selling to suitors

With the SEC cracking down hard on options backdaters, many of these companies under investigation are joining up with suitors.

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Microsoft's Vista fails in public eye

Microsoft's saving grace from meager growth and innovation over the past few years is supposed to be Microsoft Vista, an operating system techland has been awaiting for months. This video that has been circulating around the web shows Vista failing a major test of its voice recognition capabilities.

Alan Murray say it's not SOX that is sending IPOs to overseas exchanges

In yesterday's WSJ, CNBC regular and WSJ editor Alan Murray espouses a different theory on why companies seeking to go public are going overseas rather than executing their IPO through the NASDAQ or NYSE.

The tradtional argument is that the regulatory environment is too stringent in the U.S. relative to European and Asian markets. Murray argues that while there may be some truth to that, the real reason is likely the fee that underwriters in the U.S. charge their clients (6.5% - 7.0%). Apparently this is often double the fees that European underwriters charge. I am not sure I agree with Murray, but it is a compelling perspective. The fees for underwriting IPOs in the U.S. haven't budged much over time, even though other brokerage related fees (see commissions on institutional sales) have decreased steadily over time.

Here is Alan Murray's article:

Fees May Be Costing
Wall Street Its Edge
In Global IPO Market
August 2, 2006; Page A2

(See Corrections & Amplifications item below.)

Is Wall Street having its Detroit moment? After a century as the undisputed financial capital of the world, New York has suddenly discovered there's competition out there.

The threat has been captured in a single fact: 24 of the top 25 initial public offerings of stock last year were issued on exchanges outside of the U.S.

That statistic is repeated frequently as financiers and policy makers wring their hands over what's happened to the nation's capital markets. Eager for a simple solution, some point to Sarbanes-Oxley, the law passed in response to Enron and other U.S. corporate scandals.

"You don't have to take my word for it," says Florida Rep. Tom Feeney, a leading Sarbanes-Oxley basher. "The London Stock Exchange is traveling the world … bragging about one thing: They are SOX free."

Unwilling to take Rep. Feeney's word for it, I went to the London Stock Exchange's Web site. What I discovered was a detailed study by Oxera Consulting Ltd. that looked at the cost of raising capital in various markets.

And guess what? The biggest source of the U.S.'s disadvantage, according to this study, wasn't the cost of complying with Sarbanes-Oxley -- although that was certainly noted. Instead, it was the high fees charged by Wall Street investment banks. In the U.S., those fees equal 6.5% to 7% of the value of shares offered. Across Europe, they are 3% to 4%. In Asia, they can be even lower.

For a big IPO, that difference easily swamps estimates of the cost of Sarbanes-Oxley. If the U.S. is losing its competitiveness, maybe some of the blame goes to its financial houses for charging excessive fees in their home market. Does anyone really believe they deserve 7% of the value of a newly listed company?

OK, now that I've gotten the attention of the folks at Goldman Sachs, let's step back and take a look at what's really going on. Not surprisingly, the situation is more complex than either the large group of Sarbanes-Oxley bashers or my smaller coterie of investment-bank bashers might make it seem.

First of all, the 24-out-of-25 figure exaggerates the issue. According to Dealogic, the market that hosted the largest proportion of IPOs by value last year was none other than the New York Stock Exchange, with 71 offerings valued at $25.6 billion. The Nasdaq came in fifth, with 139 offerings valued at $14.1 billion. Together, they handled roughly a quarter of the value of all the world's new listings.

Moreover, many of the companies on the top 25 list were privatizations of state-owned companies: China Construction Bank and Shenhua Energy in China, or Electricité de France and Gaz de France. No surprise those governments choose to launch their IPOs in their home markets.

There's also a cyclical aspect to the IPO business that's not working in the U.S.'s favor right now. The U.S. is still suffering an overhang from the wild days of 1999 and 2000, when any 30-year-old with a Web site could take his or her company public. After that financial orgy, it's no surprise the market has become more skeptical of IPOs.

Still, there's clearly something worth worrying about here. New Treasury Secretary Henry "Hank" Paulson Jr. -- former chief executive of Goldman Sachs -- said the issue will be on the table today when he meets with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Chris Cox, who comprise the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.

In an interview with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo yesterday, Mr. Paulson said there's no simple answer to America's IPO problem. "Markets overseas are much stronger, more competitive than they were a few years ago," he said, "so that's one of the reasons."

He also cited the U.S. "legal environment" (read: trial lawyers), the "enforcement environment" (read: New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer) and the "regulatory environment" (read: Sarbanes-Oxley) as contributing to a reluctance to raise new capital in the U.S.

Certainly, Sarbanes-Oxley deserves its share of the blame. Carlyle Group Managing Director Robert Grady, who is also chairman of the National Venture Capital Association, says it's particularly burdensome for smaller companies, which can face compliance costs as high as $2 million to $3 million. The problem has been exacerbated by risk-averse accounting firms, which have taken a small portion of the law, known as Section 404, and turned it into an enormously burdensome new reporting requirement for companies. Some easing of the Section 404 rule seems necessary and inevitable.

But Sarbanes-Oxley alone can't explain an IPO slowdown that began well before the law took hold. Mr. Paulson and his colleagues need to cast a wide net, and include a hard look at the practices of investment banks like the one he ran for seven years, to understand why Wall Street may be losing its edge.

Wednesday, August 02, 2006

Weekend Reading from Kedrosky

Here is Kedrosky's latest Weekend Reading Column.

AOL officially a shell of its old self

There was a time when AOL was the bread and butter of Internet connectivity. The free trial CDs became pop culture icons, the ubiquitious @aol.com suffix was a staple for Internet e-mail addresses, and AIM was a necessity for communication. Now, the AOL e-mail address is no longer a premium thing, but a free service for all internet users. AOL is transforming itself from the stodgy dial-up player to a portal like Google and Yahoo. The Company announced today that the decline in subscribers (who are moving to broadband) means that most of AOL's services will be accessible for free, including e-mail. The dial-up business will remain, but its numbers (understandably) are rapidly declining. CNN has a nice piece covering AOL's past and future. The question for AOL is can ad revenue growth outpace their loss in revenue from typical monthly subscriber fees? Google and Yahoo have crowded the search market and with MSN making a play in the space as well, one has to wonder how much ad revenue is out there.

Barron's covers the CBOE's move to get into cash equity trading

Kopin Tan, who covers the options space in his weekly "The Striking Price" column for Barron's had a nice piece on the potential for the CBOE to effectively get into the cash equities trading business. Tan's points make sense, especially the fact that options exchanges are highly active customers for cash equity exchanges (think NASDAQ and NYSE) because derivative players often hedge their risk or close out positions by buying or selling the underlying stock.

See the article pasted below or follow the link here.

CBOE Seeks Its Share

By KOPIN TAN

IN RECENT YEARS, SOME OF THE FIERCEST SPECULATION at the Chicago Board Options Exchange involved not the direction of stocks, but the fate of its trading floor. Since the nation's oldest option market began pushing into electronic trading, the human throng on its floor had thinned, and traders rued the day when their 45,000 square feet might get converted into a gym, or cineplex, or bowling alley.

As it turns out, the CBOE has other designs for that space. Come January, 400 South LaSalle St. will house not just the largest U.S. option exchange, but a brand new stock market, as well. If all goes to plan, some 2,500 stocks will one day trade on the CBOE's existing "hybrid" platform, where orders can be filled electronically or through "open outcry" auctions conducted by human stock traders who will populate its floor.

At first blush, the move seems like any other in the increasing convergence of once-separate stock and derivatives markets; the International Securities Exchange (ticker: ISE) also is planning to add stocks to its electronic option menu, while the venerable New York Stock Exchange has pushed into options. Shares of NYSE Group (NYX) barely registered the new threat, and rose 4.3% after the CBOE announcement (albeit on a day when the NYSE reported strong second-quarter profits).

But while option exchanges will join a crowded field, these secondary markets can make serious inroads on the primary markets' turf. Taken as a whole, option market makers are by far the single largest customer at U.S. stock exchanges -- since these professionals must buy and sell vats of stocks to hedge their own constantly shifting risks. The ability to trade stocks in their own markets could siphon business from established stock venues.

Also, many brokerages already route their customers' option orders to large option exchanges and may not need much prodding to steer stock orders there, as well. The CBOE says its stock specialists will not act as agents for customer orders, which may appease money managers worried about the potential conflicts of interest when traditional specialists handle both their own and customer accounts.

And while the NYSE's own hybrid stock-trading platform remains an untested entity, the CBOE's hybrid platform has operated for years, and -- along with the exchange's payments to attract order flow -- have helped lift its market share to 37% from 32% over the past year.

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Like the ISE, whose stock exchange is backed by a bevy of big Wall Street firms, 45% of the CBOE stock exchange will be owned by big trading firms. These include units of Van der Moolen Holdings (VDM), LaBranche (LAB) and the privately held Interactive Brokers and Susquehanna International Group.

For many brokerage and trading firms, such investments are a "defensive hedge" against a not-too-distant future when stock trading may no longer be dominated by the duopoly of the NYSE and Nasdaq Stock Market (NDAQ), says Raymond James analyst Michael Vinciquerra.

CBOE officials, understandably, framed their move as an offensive strike. CEO William Brodsky talked about how "Regulation NMS" -- a cadre of proposed rules that essentially require orders to be filled at the best possible price -- "creates opportunities for competing stock exchanges."

But the CBOE also is defending its option turf. Exchanges like the NYSE and ISE are soon expected to link stock and option fees, essentially offering customers a discount or incentives for sending them both sets of orders. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange, for one, says it plans to link both stock and option fees perhaps as soon as September. As ambitious rivals colonize new territories, the reigning option-market king must expand his reach or risk being usurped.

Meanwhile, the CBOE should begin trading stocks well before it can get itself listed as one, even as it continued to take small steps toward the latter goal. Last week its board gave the nod to file with regulators plans to "demutualize," or turn the member-owned market into a for-profit company.

While this paves the way for the exchange to eventually sell shares to the public, its path isn't without hurdles. Because the CBOE was born when the Chicago Board of Trade (BOT) coughed up a smoking lounge for trading options, full CBOT seats today still carry the right to trade at the option market. That ownership overhang makes valuing CBOE shares tricky. Recent plans to buy back these external rights have met with little success since CBOT traders, many of them familiar with agricultural cycles, can recognize a cash cow not yet ripe for milking and are holding onto their residual rights.

As such, the registration documents the CBOE plans to file may not include a specific proposal for resolving the seat-rights issue. And regulators likely will have enough to pore over, at least for now, for this crucial detail to be submitted at a later date. But until it finds a way to persuade its historical parent to let go, the CBOE is a long way from independence.

As part of its for-profit metamorphosis, the CBOE last week also offered a glimpse of its books. In the first six months this year, revenue increased 32% to $129.6 million. Income before taxes was $32 million, up from $8.7 million in the same spell last year.

How profitable the CBOE will become as a stock-and-option market remains to be seen. But the success of cross-town derivatives peers like the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and CBOT as publicly traded stocks have egged on some fairly fierce speculation. The most recent CBOE seat to change hands went for $1.35 million -- up from about $700,000 a year ago and $299,000 in January 2005. It was the 33rd seat to fetch more than $1 million since that milestone was first passed in February.

IF THERE IS AN obvious and crowded trade in the option market, it is the purchase of calls or puts just before a company reports earnings in the hope of a big stock move. In contrast, fewer investors stick around once that hubbub dies down, even though post-earnings stock moves may prove no less substantial.

Just look at Dell Computer (DELL). Shares fell toward a five-year low below 19 after the computer maker blamed aggressive pricing and slashed profit forecasts on July 21. Since then, however, the computer maker has quietly climbed 13% to about 21.50, as bargain hunters bought shares and after Citigroup analyst Richard Gardner upgraded the stock, citing approaching catalysts like Dell's use of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) chips in desktops, its investment to improve customer service and the potential boost to 2007 sales once the Vista PC operating system is launched.

Following Gardner's opinion, Citigroup's option strategists looked for a way to bet on an increase in stock price and a decrease in option premiums -- since Dell option prices had run up and were expensive. Among other things, they suggested selling short-term, 20-strike puts, which commits an investor to buy shares if Dell falls below that target. As an alternative, bulls might also buy a call spread in a 1-by-2 ratio -- for example, buying one January 20 call while selling two January 22.50 calls.

Both trades worked well last week as Dell shares climbed and volatility subsided. But investors looking to get in now -- the stock could still have further upside, and Citi has a 24 target on shares -- might want to make some adjustments. For example, August 20 puts were trading at a miserly 20 cents, and those looking for plumper premiums might look toward longer-term puts. Meanwhile, buyers of the ratio call spread might consider higher strike prices -- for example, buying one January 22.50 call and selling two January 25 calls. For this trade, profits are maximized as Dell approaches 25, although losses mount should shares surge above 25.

In fact, buying ratio spreads may prove appealing in the current market for other stocks, as Goldman Sachs option strategists Maria Grant and John Marshall pointed out recently. Option premiums on many stocks are high owing to this choppy earnings season, and buying calls or puts may be expensive. In comparison, buying call or put spreads in a ratio cost less while effectively positioning for a limited stock move.

Buying one option and selling two further out-of-the-money ones also creates a position that is net short volatility, which may prove wise as the earnings season winds down and if, after the Aug. 8 meeting of Federal Reserve policy makers, market volatility starts to ebb.

Bill Miller comments on Legg Mason Value Trust's recent performance

The venerable Bill Miller of Legg Mason has issued comments on the recent lackluster performance of his Legg Mason Value Trust fund. The Reuters article refers to Miller as "widely regarded as America's best stock picker." The fund which has beaten the S&P each of the last 15 years, has experienced some hiccups because of hits to some of its tech names (Amazon and Yahoo). The article also cites the fund's exposure to UnitedHealth, which has seen its shares tumble after an extended rally. UNH's troubles began when the SEC started investigating if the Company was issuing options to directors when the stock was at or near low points.

The Reuters article does not mention the troubles the the fund will have given the precipitous dive Kodak took yesterday. Miller has been a vocal supporter of Kodak and was one of the most cited supporters in Barron's piece covering the company.