Thursday, September 28, 2006

Kirkorian and Tracinda may want up to 12M more GM shares

As talks brew between Nissan and GM, Kirkorian and Tracinda have issued a 13D filing stating that the investment group wants to buy 6 million more shares of GM and perhaps 6 million more beyond that. The odds of Nissan/GM tie up seem unlikely in my opinion, given that it would be too large of a beast for Nissan to undertake and Ghosn probably would have difficulty dealing with the massive, unionized labor force. In my opinion, turning around GM/Ford is not something that can be done through tie-ups, but rather through operation and structural changes within each firm.

Comprehensive coverage of Amaranth

The Amaranth scandal has resulted in a massive influx of Amaranth related press. It may have become excessive, but DealBreaker, a "Wall Street Tabloid" has sorted through it all and put together a comprehensive page complete with commentary, insightful links, and even some polls that gauge investor reaction.

Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Wall Street's top golfers

The DealBook publishes the handicap's of Wall Street's top brass.

Chicago real estate market overvalued by 20%

Two industry research firms issued a report that stated that Chicago's real estate market is currently 20% overvalued. Relative to the other cities in the report, Chicago's market is not nearly as pricey, however.

Tuesday, September 26, 2006

MBAs cheat according to Bloomberg

Interesting piece from Bloomberg. MBAs cheat more than other students, apparently.

Napster report estimates value at $7 a share

Napster, the ageless digital music provider, recently hired UBS to help it explore strategic alternatives. The interpretation was that the Company is for sale. Thomas Weisel's analyst thinks that the stock could be worth $7 in a takeout. Check out his report here.

Two more great financial news sources

So a buddy forwarded me a daily email he subscribes to from www.SeekingAlpha.com

Seeking Alpha, for those of you who are not aware, is a website that is described as "the leading provider of stock market opinion and analysis from blogs, money managers and investment newsletters."

I have been subscribing to the site's RSS feeds for some time and have found them to be useful, although the plethora of information available on RSS can make things overwhelming.

But the email they send out is ideal for people who enjoy the DealBook emails from NYTimes and The Deal's daily emails as well.

Check out the email subscriptions available here

You will have to sign up for an account first.

The other site I stumbled on was www.fiercefinance.com.

The email newsletter is a nice complement to DealBook.




Monday, September 25, 2006

Weekend Reading

Kedrosky's "Weekend Reading" column is always a good bet to catch up on the market's best commentary and articles.

Bidding wars in private equity could be here to stay

We are lead to believe that private equity is a clubby, old boys network where some of the brightest minds turnaround companies for the betterment of the companies themselves as well as investors both before the buyout and after.

We are also lead to believe that private equity firms are competitive, but often keep things in check with their fellow private equity groups when one party is all but ready to make a transaction a "done deal." The thought is that a lot of PE deals are done with a consortium of private equity shops, and hence, having the support of other firms can be invaluable when deals sizes get large.

Recently, however, the market saw KKR and Bain Capital attempt to make a last minute bid on Freescale after it was all but certain that Blackstone would be suitor. Eventually Blackstone won the bidding war, but the firm had to increase its bid by 10 percent. The New York Times' Andrew Ross Sorkin feels that this scenario could be a recurring situation and have a huge effect on the bidding wars in the buyout space.

Could partnerships be over? Probably not, but with so much money chasing a select number of deals, the politeness could become a rarity.

Admiration for the regional boutiques

IDD had a nice article on the rise of the regional boutique investment bank. See article pasted below.

Burgeoning Boutiques


In 2001, when Douglas Brockway and a couple of partners formed Innovation Advisors, a New York-based advisory boutique focused on the technology industry, friends in the investment banking world were incredulous.

Back then, the US economy was in the doldrums and the technology industry was licking its wounds. But not quite five years later, Brockway and his firm have won a measure of respect from old colleagues.

"A lot of people scratched their heads and asked why we were starting an investment bank," says Brockway, a managing director at the firm with 15 years of experience dealing with emerging growth companies at SG Cowen and Alex. Brown. "Now those same people are saying, You're smart -- and a little lucky.'"

Indeed, what began as a three-person operation in New York that was long on energy and experience but short on actual business clients has morphed into a firm with Boston and Chicago offices and a staff of 18. Brockway, moreover, boasts that the upstart firm has closed 30 transactions since its inception, the bulk of them M&A deals. And Innovation Advisors is not alone.

Every profession that services mergers and acquisitions - lawyers, accountants, insurance firms -- have seen its fortunes rise of late. But few have benefited more handsomely than the 25 to 30 regional and boutique investment banks around the country that focus on advisory work and private equity investments in the middle market. Ironically, the explosion of opportunity, thanks in varying parts to pricing, generational changes and the ubiquitous private equity pressure, has caused these little fish to grow quickly and stretch the definition of boutique.

Time to Get In on the Auction

It's no surprise that the M&A boom, and concomitant private equity explosion, have been the primary drivers of this success. The effects these two engines have had on middle-market banks have caused them to mushroom.

The best known of these firms, which largely eschew the capital- and risk-intensive world of sales and trading, include Houlihan Lokey Howard & Zukin in New York, Harris Williams in Richmond, Va., Goldsmith Agio Helms in Minneapolis, Lincoln International in Chicago, GulfStar Group in Houston, George Baum in Kansas City and Edgeview Partners in Charlotte, N.C.

Their success over the last decade has completely altered the landscape of M&A deals, particularly in the middle market, defined broadly as deals under $700 million.

The rising prominence of regional boutiques is occurring as all areas of the investment banking industry are flourishing.

Investment banking activity is at some of its highest levels in years, says a recent Goldman Sachs report on the securities industry. By all accounts, M&A work - where fees generally run 1.5% to 2% of the sale price - is rapidly becoming Job One at the regional boutiques.

A host of factors are fueling the M&A fervor. Not only are private equity firms hungry for acquisitions, but there are more of them, and they are awash in capital, with US funds having raised $446 billion in the last eight years, according to Thomson. Pension funds, foundations, university endowments and wealthy individuals looking to put their cash hoards to work, increasingly disdain the public markets in favor of less liquid - but more profitable - private equity investments. The total capital raised in 2006 is expected to break all records, with $78 billion raised as of Sept. 12.

As the attached table shows (page 19), the increasing competition from private equity is remarkable. Already, there have been more funds closed in 2006 than were raised in all of 2002, and the dollars committed has been trebled. And the 92 funds closed thus far this year have raised more money than the 225 funds raised in 2003 and 2004. While 2006 still technically lags the fundraising numbers put up last year, simple math suggests that the year-end total may well dwarf 2005.

"Within our investment banking group, M&A is about 80% of our business," says Bill Tyson, co-head of investment banking at BB&T Capital. "And two-thirds of our M&A business pertains to private equity." Innovation's Brockway says about 70% of his firm's business involves M&A situations, and the balance stems from capital raisings.

Once, private equity firms targeting a middle-market opportunity could strike a deal directly with an entrepreneurial company, but now they almost always go through an intermediary - the regional boutique. And that often means participating in an auction.

"In the mid-1980s, you could just find a company and negotiate with them," says Paul Rossetti, managing director of American Securities Capital Partners, a New York private equity firm with a $900 million war chest looking for action. "A lot of guys back then didn't know what their company was worth. But now everybody pretty much knows how it's done, or they know somebody who did [an LBO]."

So spirited is the auction process that the effect is to intensify activity around a particular situation, says Dom DeChiara, the head of private equity and investment funds practice at King & Spalding, a New York law firm. "It's not unusual to send the book out to 100 different people," he adds, referring to the first stage of the auction process.

Other forces pushing public companies into the arms of private equity firms - especially those in the middle market - include the groaning weight of both Sarbanes-Oxley regulations, which some analysts say adds $2 million a year in compliance costs, and the demands of regulators like the Securities & Exchange Commission. In addition, many businesses are relishing the freedom of being closely held and having the luxury of thinking about long-term success, rather than the quarter-to-quarter performance concerns that dominate the thinking of Wall Street.

In a massive generational change, a multitude of family-owned businesses are going on the auction block. "Baby boomers are beginning to turn illiquid assets into liquid investments and diversify their net worth," says Colt Luedde, managing director at GulfStar Group, a regional boutique in Houston. "The owner of a $50 million company usually doesn't have that much in cash, despite the value. But by selling all or a portion of it, the owner can convert it to cash and invest in all sorts of things."

In addition, banks have been loosening their lending requirements and vying for deals. In Houston, says Jeff Geuther, a private equity lender at LaSalle Bank/ABN AMRO, a bevy of new lenders are jostling for a place in private equity deals and ratcheting down prices. "Pricing on senior and junior debt has been compressed," he says. "We're seeing spreads come down to 150 basis points over Libor from 250 basis points just two years ago."

To the list of market drivers propelling the middle market, Innovation's Brockway adds the fact that strategic buyers - Corporate America as well as non-US companies - "have fixed the internal problems that they had in 2001 and now want to have 15% organic growth, plus they want to fill in the extra 5% [with an acquisition] to get to 20%."

And with improving stock values, many public companies are not shying away from using shares as currency, Brockway says. "So strategic buyers are more active and driven to be more aggressive. From the sellers' perspective, it's a perfect world."

Prices at which companies are selling are at historical highs, as much as eight times Ebitda, compared with roughly six times Ebitda just five years ago, says David Lobel, a managing partner and co-founder of Sentinel Capital Partners, a New York-based private equity firm that invests mainly in middle-market companies.

And for the right business, GulfStar's Luedde says multiples can go higher. He cites the recent example of a $330 million sale in which the price was 10.4 times Ebitda. "Most private equity people will tell you that they're paying more than they ever have," says Richard Stowell, managing director of Fairway Capital, a Houston-based $150-million mezzanine fund.

Houlihan Lokey managing director Justin Abelow contends that the regional boutiques are not the only ones pushing up the prices. "In situations where we've auctioned broadly, it's often because private equity firms insist that they get to see every deal," he says. "The pressure isn't always coming from the seller - or the agent."

Some industry observers say that prices might have reached their peak; should they sail any higher, there will be little room to produce the requisite internal rate of return on deals. However, all things being equal, sellers may insist on terms in addition to price that can force a private equity firm to make concessions. In the sale of a manufacturing company, for example, "someone may want to be sure that Earl, who used to run the plant, keeps his job," says Fairway Capital's Stowell. "For a price, all things are possible."

The Boutique Advantage

To distinguish themselves among both sellers and purchasers in such a competitive environment, the regional boutiques are relying more on industry knowledge than geographic expertise. Indeed, territorial boundaries are breaking down, especially as firms expand beyond their traditional preserve and even begin forming alliances overseas.

Harris Williams, for example, is no longer confined to Richmond. "We've grown consistently every year that we've been in existence," says managing director Giles Tucker, noting that the company has added offices in San Francisco, Boston, Philadelphia and, most recently, Minneapolis, where the firm recently hired a top M&A banker from Piper Jaffray.

But even when there is no actual office, GulfStar's Luedde says out-of-state regional boutiques, as well as other distant bankers, are regularly crowding the locals. "We see more firms from around the country sending their representatives to Texas, calling on people in the market here," he says. "So you're competing on deals way more than you used to."

More often than not, he says, two or three other investment banks can be counted on to woo the same client. And it isn't just the regional boutiques, Luedde adds. "We just lost a deal to Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs - although it's unusual to see them."

For its part, GulfStar, which also has a Dallas office and has built a reputation as a premier energy boutique, is now venturing outside Texas and the oil patch, representing companies in other industries, such as business services.

It is often the key contacts and strong relationships with private equity firms that specialize in particular industries that can separate the boutique bank from its brethren, says Fred Wainwright, executive director at the Tuck School of Business' center for private equity and entrepreneurship. "A lot of the boutiques have particular niches and that adds value to the marketplace."

At Goldsmith Agio, says managing director Michael McFarland, the firm's reputation for advising consumer companies helped win the assignment representing Allen-Edmonds Shoe, maker of men's dress shoes. Its sale to private equity firm Goldner Hawn, also of Minneapolis, marked Goldsmith Agio's 10th sale of a consumer company in 2006.

Tyson at BB&T Capital in Richmond says that his firm has several areas of expertise, including handling M&A assignments for companies in industrial services, logistics and transportation, financial services and healthcare. But one of BB&T's more active areas has been the firm's service to government services companies, including handling M&A assignments for information technology, aerospace and defense contractors in its Reston, Va., office. Near Washington, DC, the office sports a staff of 25 and is the firm's largest location outside Richmond. "There's been a huge increase in government spending," Tyson says.

Here Come the Big Boys

BB&T also is indicative of another trend in the industry: the purchase of regional boutiques by large, superregional commercial banks that, in the wake of the demise of the Glass-Steagall Act, have piled into investment banking. GulfStar is owned by Lardo-based International Bank of Commerce, and in the last year, Harris Williams was purchased by PNC Bank, a Pittsburgh bank holding company, ORIX, a Japanese financial firm, purchased a majority share of Houlihan Lokey, and Wells Fargo bought Barrington Associates in August.

Having a commercial bank as a partner can add to a regional boutique's ability to provide more lending and financing options, say investment bankers. But at least one private equity executive voices skepticism.

"The theory is that, by buying these boutiques, banks will provide financing," says American Securities Capital Partners' Rossetti. "But guys like us already have our lending sources lined up. I don't think that, because they're affiliated with a bank, it makes somebody a better shop."

But sources at the private equity firms are applauding another trend attending boutique banks: their rapid expansion into overseas markets, either by opening offices, partnering with foreign financial firms or selling off part of their company to offshore players, as Houlihan Lokey has done with ORIX.

"We hadn't figured out Asia, and we had issues like the language barrier," says Houlihan Lokey's Abelow. "And frankly, it's harder to get paid there for pure advice as opposed to capital financings."

Steve Brown, a partner at Code Hennessy & Simmons in Chicago, also hails the trend. He cites in particular working with Chicago's Lincoln Partners, which merged with Frankfurt's Peters Associates this past January. "As globalization continues to bring business communities together," Brown says, "they have a greater capability to find international buyers in Europe and Asia."

And that creates only one problem: No one has coined a good name for a regional boutique bank that has gone global. IDD

(c) 2006 Investment Dealers' Digest Magazine and SourceMedia, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

http://www.iddmagazine.com http://www.sourcemedia.com

Market chatter to be captured by hedge funds?

The massive influx of data, financial media, and financial commentary has made investing both easy but also a nuisance. Market chatter drives prices often instantaneously and the investors who get in early can reap huge benefits. That being said it seems only natural that a new software come to the market that allows hedge funds to capture market noise, rumors, chatter, etc. almost real time. The Financial Times story can be found here.

CSFB's IB head tells bankers to curb the excess

Investment Bank CSFB, or now referred to as just Credit Suisse, has told its bankers to curb the partying and color copies to help the group improve its efficiency. Investment banking is theoretically a high margin business given that the business is service oriented. Compensation customarily accounts for the lions share of any investment bank's operating expenses, but, as the CSFB scenario illustrates, other expenses can catch up. Perhaps the urgency from Brady Dougan, GSB grad and investment banking head at CSFB, stems from the fact that the division's efficiency ratio (cost / income) is higher than perennial rival UBS. See the article here.

Sunday, September 24, 2006

Hilarious piece from Leveraged Sellout

Great piece.

Thursday, September 21, 2006

Facebook and Yahoo!

The buzz began when the journal came out today, touting a possible $1 billion deal by Yahoo to acquire Facebook. The Journal was quick to say that talks were still preliminary and that Gooogle and Microsoft could still get involved, but the word on the street seems to be that Yahoo! is relatively close to making things happen. Any deal would be quite the windfall for Facebook and its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg, who started the social networking website from his dorm room at Harvard owns approximately 30%.

The hoopla began last year when Fox/News Corp. bought MySpace for $500 million.

Interestingly Time Warner CEO Dick Parsons isn't so keen on the $1 billion price tag.

Interesting deal in brokerage land

An interesting deal in the land of options was announced a few days ago. The deal, which paired options brokerage compay thinkorswim with INVESTools was sizable ($340 million). INVESTools is buying thinkorswim at a time when equity and index options are hotter than ever.

The interesting aspect of this deal is the underlying businesses of each company. INVESTools has traditionally been an educational company, providing insight and information on options trading for investors. The idea was that users would then get directed to options trading platforms such as optionsXpress and INVESTools would get some commission for the business they sent there. Thinkorswim, on the other hand, is purely an online options brokerage entity, which means that INVESTools is essentially entering unchartered territory relative to its old business model.

Vertical mergers seem less common in the financial services space lately, but prospects of this transaction could be quite bright. Equity options volume is on a tear, thinkorswim has been growing its account base at record paces and analysts expect the industry's volume to continue to rise rapidly.

Wednesday, September 20, 2006

Nice to see Easterbrook is back at Page 2

TMQ is back with Gregg Easterbrook. Football fans rejoice.

WSJ publishes 2006-2007 MBA Rankings

In what is expected to cause quite the stir, the WSJ published its MBA rankings for the 2006-2007 academic year with the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business as its top choice. Not even in the top 10 are UofC (11), Harvard (14), and Stanford (18). Frankly, this does not make sense to me, but perhaps the WSJ is trying to sell newspapers and catch people's eyes with their outlandish rankings.

Perennial favorites Columbia, Kellogg, and Wharton finished 4,6,7, respectively. The Journal also published an interesting "International Ranking" which tried to mix a myriad of factors to judge each school's international clout. The top four schools are outside of the U.S. and number five is Thunderbird. UChicago is 14th.

Monday, September 18, 2006

Burtal times for Amaranth

Amaranth falls hard.

Napster for sale?

Once a haven for free MP3s, Napster is putting itself up for sale. The Company has hired UBS.

Hedge Funds in a slump?

USA Today tells us that many hedge funds have hit a rough patch lately, even as the markets have been doing well. Hedge funds that have invested in natural gas have been hurt badly, including Amaranth.

College Admissions

The buzz in higher education last week was that Harvard was eliminating early decision from its admissions program. No longer will students be able to apply to Harvard by the end of October and know their fate (binding if they get in) early in the process. Harvard said they were ending the program because it favored the wealthy, but perhaps, as the NYTimes notes, the end of early admissions would actually help Harvard.

Most interesting to me was this table.

Dutch bank ABN Amro for sale?

Rumors were flying late last week that Dutch bank ABN Amro may be on the block. While it is still pure speculation, the rumor seems to indicate that both an acquisition of the entire entity and an acquisition of just ABN's U.S. operations could materialize. Any deal would be massive in size. ABN's current market value is over 40 billion euros. The consolidation among large domestic banks seems to have cooled off after a busy few years when interest rates were low and real estate was all the rage. Check out the Bloomberg article.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Two interesting, non-finance related articles

Bears fan sells furniture for free after shutout.

Fans vote for their favorite baseball fields.

Saturday, September 02, 2006

At 105, investor is bearish and vocal

Albert H. Gordon, an active investor at the seemingly treacherous age of 105 had a nice piece on his life and his current sentiment on the markets covered by Bloomberg. Gordon once ran Kidder, Peabody and was succesful as an investor as well as a salesman.