Sunday, May 14, 2006

Bill Miller Says Commodities Have Had There Day

Legg Mason's great prognositactor, the venerable Bill Miller, tells us in his latest commentary that the commodity cycle has had its day. And he may be right. Given gold, silver, oil, copper, etc.'s magnificent rides over the past few months, you would be hard pressed to find a cohort of smart money investors who would double up on these same sectors. Miller's commentary points to the idea that people need to notice cycles before the bullish cycle in a space happens. For example, the right time for oil was in '99 when it was trading at $10 a barrell. Or the tech space in 1994 and 1995, before the bubble burst. So what does Miller like? He says a better "C" is "C", or Citigroup, the behemouth bank that might be ripe for an upswing. Is Miller right? It's too early to tell, but his track record alone should force others to listen to him.

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